CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-30T17:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36727/-1
CME Note: Faint partial-halo CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, which remains visible into the C3 field of view. Overlaps with CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which is much more well-defined in coronagraph imagery. This CME is not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source of this CME is a distinct set of opening field lines and post-eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94/171/193 around 2025-01-30T14:25Z located at approx. S15E10, as part of the same filament eruption which sourced CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which was seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T18:57Z (-6.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Notification not sent ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. Ensemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 and 2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250201-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - Mars between about 2025-02-02T19:46Z and 2025-02-03T11:26Z (average arrival 2025-02-03T02:59Z) for 75% of simulations. Additionally the CMEs is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-02-01T13:22Z and 2025-02-02T02:18Z (average arrival 2025-02-01T18:57Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 61% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_arrival_Mars.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080_Mars_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-30_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080/Detailed_results_20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_LAHAINA080.txtLead Time: 20.65 hour(s)
Difference: 3.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-02-01T01:46Z
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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
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